There are 16 FA Cup games to look forward to this week, spanning Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Exciting times, but we’re not quite at the “business end” of the competition yet, so this round is still seen as one in which the bigger teams can rest a few players and risk being knocked out.
There are some potential shocks this week, for sure. Some look unrealistic of course, such as 28/1 Salford at Man City and 22/1 Wigan at Arsenal. Hull City are 7/1 at home to Chelsea which some may find tempting, but the Blues have plenty of squad options and don’t tend to fail these missions.
Some other favourites do look vulnerable however, and we’re listing this week’s potential giant-killings with approximate odds, as we get stuck into FA Cup Round 4.
Wrexham (21/10) Against Ipswich Town
In one of two Friday night games, the not always popular but ever-interesting Wrexham host fellow Championship side Ipswich Town. True, the visitors are third in the league and look quality, but the home side are only three places and seven points behind them.
Wrexham love a big cup night, and you can’t help thinking that they may just be up for it a little more than Ipswich under the lights and in front of a vociferous home crowd. Odds above 2/1 are too big for a home side in this situation, and it is worth taking.
Burton Albion (13/2) Against West Ham United
The early kick-off on Saturday is Burton Albion versus West Ham of the Premier League. Now why do we instinctively think of Macclesfield v Crystal Palace from the last round?
Burton are down in League One, and in the relegation places at that, but the FA Cup is just different and brings out of the best in players when they’re up against it. This is a chance for people to make themselves heroes, and they are sure to give it a proper go.
At home in the league, Burton have managed five wins from 15 games, scoring 17 goals. West Ham have just three in 13 away from home in the Premier League, scoring 15 times. Yes, the quality of the two league’s is chalk and cheese, but as the saying goes, occasions like this are a great leveller and almost 8/1 is massive, so we can afford to take a chance at small stakes.
Port Vale (10/3) Against Bristol City
This is one of the traditional 3pm FA Cup kick-offs. There’s a hint of Wrexham v Ipswich about this game, in as much as Bristol City can smell a chance of being in the Premier League via the play-offs, and they have a tough away trip to rivals Swansea City to come in the Championship next week.
City’s away form in the league is decent, but nothing extraordinary, and we don’t yet know if a full first team squad will line up at Port Vale.
As for the home side, they’re struggling in League One but there’s been plenty of interest in them for this tie. If anything, 10/3 looks a little skinny given their league position, but it’s still a good price for a motivated home side and a chance can be taken.
Brighton (4/1) Against Liverpool
The Seagulls travel to Liverpool on Saturday night for an 8pm kick-off hoping to end a poor run of four games without a win. Their recent form hasn’t been disastrous, just a little disappointing, and their last win was at Old Trafford in the third round of this competition.
Liverpool’s form continues to be very in and out. They were hugely flattered by a 4-1 scoreline against Newcastle, and lost a lead against Man City last weekend. The top four is a huge priority for them, and it would be no surprise to see certain players dropped. Brighton are very capable, and 4/1 is a fair price on a cup weekend given the situation.
Stoke City (16/5) Against Fulham
Championship Stoke face Premier League Fulham on Sunday, and this is the classic FA Cup tie top-level sides hate. Fulham are favourites, but they have to travel to a difficult place and perhaps without one or two regulars if the coach decides to make some changes.
Stoke don’t score an awful lot of goals, but they do always keep things tight. That’s what we want here, as an open game would surely suit the more talented top-division outfit.
The Potters have managed six wins from their 15 home league games this term, crucially showing a +5 goal difference. Fulham meanwhile have been relatively weak on the road, winning just three times in 12 games for a goal difference of -8.
Can we really say their form on the road is significantly stronger than Stoke’s is at home? The gap wouldn’t be that big in our view, so given the other circumstances around this FA Cup encounter, odds above 3/1 for the home side represents betting value and we’re going to take it.