Despite the best efforts of Accrington Stanley last week (cheers lads!), our second set of selections in this latest attempt of the £10 to £1000 Challenge got over the line.
Here’s a quick recap of how we did:
- Bet 5: Yeovil Town vs Accrington Stanley: Accrington +1.25 Asian Handicap – We had backed Accrington with a +1.25 Asian Handicap, and it’s a good job as well as they succumbed to a 2-3 defeat against a Yeovil side that had lost 2-8 in their previous start!
- Bet 6: Goztepe vs Fenerbahce: Fenerbahce +1.25 Asian Handicap – This pick was thankfully a lot more straightforward, with Fenerbahce claiming a 2-2 draw.
- Bet 7: Houston Dynamo vs San Jose: Houston +1.25 Asian Handicap – Steady as she goes here, with Houston claiming a routine 3-0 win.
- Bet 8: Sporting Lisbon vs Steaua Bucharest: Sporting/Draw Double Chance – We expected the Portuguese side to win comfortably here, so the 0-0 was something of a surprise; not to worry, it kept our winning run going!
We’ve more than doubled our original stake already with £23.01 burning a hole in our pocket, so who are we re-investing that in this week?
Bet 9: Darmstadt vs St Pauli: Darmstadt +1.25 Asian Handicap – £23.01 at 1/8
Friday August 18, 17:30
We run a variety of statistical models to help us make our selections, and one of these features the notion of ‘chance creation’, based upon shot location and goal expectancy.
The German Bundesliga II is just one of the divisions we will be covering this year, and that has given us a handy insight into this week’s first pick.
Both of these teams have four points to their name after a pair of Bundesliga II matches, but the key difference is that Darmstadt have dominated both of their outings (winning our chance creation count 11-1 and 13-4), while St Pauli have been second best in both of theirs.
Indeed, how the visitors here escaped with a point against Dynamo Dresden despite losing the chance scoring 8-14 remains something of a mystery….
Bet 10: Ingolstadt vs Regensburg: Under 4.5 Goals – £25.41 at 1/10
Sunday August 20, 12:30
It takes some effort from both sides to clear the 4.5 goal mark in any game, and these two German Bundesliga II sides don’t exactly fill us with confidence they can achieve the feat.
Just 5/34 of Ingolstadt’s Bundesliga games witnessed the mark last season, which compliments Regensburg’s 4/38 ratio.
Neither side has started great guns this term having lost both of their opening encounters, and so avoiding defeat at all costs here is necessary.
Bet 11: Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United: Seattle/Draw Double Chance – £27.95 at 1/10
Monday August 21, 02:30
The early bird catches the worm, as the old saying goes, and it might just be the case that Seattle Sounders have their way with Minnesota in the early hours of Monday morning.
The hosts have only lost one of their eleven home matches, and on an unbeaten run of eight matches – five wins, three draws – it would need a nigh-on miracle for Minnesota to upset the odds here.
The visitors’ record on the road reads W0 D2 L7, and they’ve lost four of their last six anywhere.
Bet 12: Levante vs Villarreal: Villarreal +1.25 Asian Handicap – £30.74 at 1/10
Monday August 21, 19:30
The new La Liga campaign kicks off this weekend and Villarreal, fifth last term but only nine points behind Atletico in third, will have aspirations of finishing inside the Champions League places.
They were excellent on the road last term (W8 D6 L5), and the addition of Carlos Bacca is canny; the Colombian is one of the most deadly marksmen on the continent as far as his goals-per-minute ratio is concerned.
Levante won the Segunda Division last term but did so with a win percentage of just over 50% – they will find the step up in class rather marked here.