The 2023/24 Premier League season provided another thrilling campaign for football fans as the most popular domestic competition on the planet delivered a captivating title race and competitive battle for the European positions. For much of the season, it appeared tough to call who would lift the trophy and which sides would gain a coveted top-six position.
However, when all was said and done, the Premier League table looked much as many expected: Manchester City won the title (again), Arsenal fared best of the rest as they had in 2022/23, and the three newly promoted sides all made an immediate return to the Championship.
At the top and bottom of the table, it would appear that the sides performed largely as expected, but was this the case throughout the league? Here, we look back at the 2023/24 Premier League season and pick out the sides who surpassed pre-season expectations and those who underwhelmed.
What Were the Expectations for Each Team?
When assessing a team’s performance vs expectation, the first step is to assess what those expectations actually were. All sides will go into the season with a goal – whether that be to win the league, qualify for Europe, or simply survive, but how do we assess how realistic these aims were for each side?
For this review, we will call upon two methods. Firstly, the pre-season betting odds for the Premier League Winner (those bookmakers are rarely bad judges of what is likely to unfold, Leicester’s shock win aside), and secondly, the squad values of each of the sides: depressing as it is, there is a strong link between pounds spent and points earned in the modern game.
Pre-Season Outright Winner Odds Table
| Team | General Price |
|---|---|
| Manchester City | 5/6 |
| Arsenal | 5/1 |
| Liverpool | 8/1 |
| Manchester United | 12/1 |
| Chelsea | 28/1 |
| Newcastle United | 66/1 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 125/1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 125/1 |
| Aston Villa | 750/1 |
| West Ham United | 750/1 |
| Brentford | 1000/1 |
| Everton | 1000/1 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1000/1 |
| Fulham | 1000/1 |
| Crystal Palace | 1000/1 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1000/1 |
| Bournemouth | 1500/1 |
| Burnley | 1500/1 |
| Sheffield United | 2500/1 |
| Luton Town | 3000/1 |
Estimated Squad Value League Table
| Team | Est Squad Value |
|---|---|
| Manchester City | £1.08 billion |
| Arsenal | £954 million |
| Chelsea | £790 million |
| Liverpool | £785 million |
| Tottenham Hotspur | £662 million |
| Manchester United | £622 million |
| Aston Villa | £550 million |
| Newcastle United | £543 million |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | £430 million |
| West Ham United | £381 million |
| Brentford | £363 million |
| Crystal Palace | £345 million |
| Nottingham Forest | £315 million |
| Bournemouth | £300 million |
| Everton | £294 million |
| Fulham | £288 million |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | £286 million |
| Burnley | £218 million |
| Sheffield United | £123 million |
| Luton Town | £107 million |
Actual League Table Comparison
| Finishing Position | Team | Odds Rank | Est Squad Value Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 9 | 7 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur | 7 | 5 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 5 | 3 |
| 7 | Newcastle United | 6 | 8 |
| 8 | Manchester United | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | West Ham United | 10 | 10 |
| 10 | Crystal Palace | 11-16 | 12 |
| 11 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 8 | 9 |
| 12 | Bournemouth | 17-18 | 14 |
| 13 | Fulham | 11-16 | 16 |
| 14 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 11-16 | 17 |
| 15 | Everton | 11-16 | 15 |
| 16 | Brentford | 11-16 | 11 |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 11-16 | 13 |
| 18 | Luton Town | 20 | 20 |
| 19 | Burnley | 17-18 | 18 |
| 20 | Sheffield United | 19 | 19 |
The first thing to jump out when looking at the above table is the impressive correlation between the betting odds, squad value, and the actual finishing positions of the sides. Manchester City and Arsenal started as first and second favourites with the two most valuable squads and duly finished first and second. Burnley, Luton, and Sheffield United began as the three rank outsiders with the least valuable squads and went down. The correlation extends further, with the six sides ranked 11th to 16th in the betting lists finishing between 10th and 17th, whilst nine of the ten most valuable squads finished in the top half of the table.
Of course, it wouldn’t be too much fun if the league played out exactly as expected, and there were a selection of outliers in the mix – two sides who performed significantly better than expected and three who fell short of the betting odds and squad value predictions.
The Over-Achievers
Now let’s take a look at the sides that could be seen to have over-achieved over the last Premier League campaign.
Aston Villa
The breakout side of 2023/24 was undoubtedly Aston Villa. A strong finish to 2022/23, which lifted the club to a seventh-placed finish, suggested that Unai Emery’s methods were beginning to take hold, and in 2023, the side took another huge step forward. Belying ninth and seventh placed finishing predictions by the betting odds and squad value measures, Villa finished an excellent fourth to qualify for the Champions League for the first time in their history.
Bournemouth
Other standout performers aren’t as easy to spot, with most sides finishing close to where we would expect. However, one team who quietly outshone its betting odds and squad value predictions was found down on the South Coast. Andoni Iraola took a little time to get his message across at Bournemouth but now has the Cherries ticking along nicely. Predicted to finish 17 or 18th by the betting odds and 14th by squad value, Bournemouth finished a rock-solid 12th – three spots higher than in 2022/23. Hopes will be high that Iraola can continue that good work during his second season.
The Under-Achievers
On the other side of the achievement coin, here are the teams whose fans would come away feeling a little disappointed.
Manchester United
How long can a single club remain in transition? For Manchester United, the answer to that question extends with each passing year. Still recovering from the retirement of Sir Alex Ferguson, a top-four finish was predicted by the betting odds, whilst squad value suggested they would at least hit the top six. Instead, they finished eighth and, barring a win against Manchester City in the FA Cup Final, will miss out on Europe entirely. Fans will hope that the arrival of Sir Jim Ratcliffe heralds the dawn of a new era.
Brentford
For the past few seasons, Thomas Frank’s Brentford would have featured in the over-achievers section of this review. However, 2023/24 wasn’t quite so rosy. Whilst the club achieved the main aim of survival with relative ease, they finished at the bottom of the odds prediction range and five positions below their squad value forecast. The absence of their most valuable asset, Ivan Toney, for a chunk of the campaign didn’t help, but the highly-rated Frank will hope for better in 2024/25.
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest’s distinctive approach to the transfer market, which seems to centre around buying as many players as humanly possible, is yet to yield any meaningful results. Replacing Steve Cooper with Nuno Espirito Santo appears to have made minimal impact on results. A four-point deduction didn’t help, but even without that, the Tricky Trees would still have finished 17th – outside their odds prediction range and four places below their squad value prediction.