At this early stage of the pre-season proceedings, we’re at a sort of ‘ante-post, ante-post’ stage when it comes to betting on the Premier League.
Any outright bets you place, ‘to win the league’, ‘to be relegated’ etc, are all considered ante-post but there may be even better value offered now as opposed to August as we don’t know who is signing for who yet.
That said, Man City as favourites for the league and the promoted three being jollies to go down are no surprise and crucially, no value.
Instead, we’re looking at a particular match-up to hand us that value as we compare Newcastle United with Liverpool for the 2024/25 Premier League season.
Club Identity
Firstly, we need to get straight just which Newcastle and which Liverpool we’re talking about.
In the case of the Toon, we cannot go back any more than two years. It’s been two and a half since the takeover and Eddie Howe’s appointment, though little business was done during the winter of 2021/22 that could really have changed the identity of a club longing to get out of the doldrums.
Newcastle have changed, but now so have Liverpool. The Klopp era is over but the infrastructure at Liverpool is the same and the squad will remain pretty familiar to us all aside from the usual pre-season tweaks.
Points Totals
In the last two seasons, Newcastle have amassed 131 points to Liverpool’s 149. That’s an average of 9 points difference per year which can be overtaken in a heartbeat.
Newcastle took the lead against Liverpool last season and then played against ten men in a game they messed up. Had they won that match, as they absolutely should have done, then this 18-point difference would have been 12 across two years. That shows you the fine details we’re talking about here when looking at points history.
What Should We Expect from Newcastle?
Newcastle United are definitely on the up, there’s no doubt that. The new regime has been a massive plus for the club and the fanbase.
Their business has been decent overall as well. Buys like Bruno Guimaraes and Alex Isak won’t be the last of the likes. This summer they’ve had to sell two young prospects, but they weren’t about to be frontline players this term and they’ve raked in the money they needed to in order to comply with PSR rules.
We should expect more quality coming their way this summer.
Furthermore, on the playing front, Sandro Tonali will be like a new signing for them this season. He is back from his gambling ban in August and he doesn’t affect PSR.
🇮🇹🤩 pic.twitter.com/OaQQTfMU2z
— Newcastle United FC (@NUFC) July 19, 2024
Logic dictates that Eddie Howe’s squad simply cannot suffer the missed days from players they did last season, another plus, while they are also not playing in Europe which could turn into quite the bonus.
Newcastle, it should be remembered, finished above Liverpool two seasons ago. They qualified for the Champions League but their bad injuries coincided with being drawn in the “group of death”. They had to do battle with Dortmund, Milan and PSG twice each and were still moments away from getting out of the group.
What About Liverpool?
Liverpool have more doubts. On the plus side, they have a quality squad and good youngsters so they should cope with demands.
The big deal is Klopp leaving after so long. The new man could be brilliant, but there’s no way of knowing that yet so anyone backing them for the title would be mad.
So, What’s the Bet?
It’s hard to back either side for a certain finish. In terms of top 4 bets, odds tend to be slight.
As well as this, you’d have to think Man City and Arsenal will definitely make it, Chelsea are on the up, Tottenham are solid, Villa made it last year and Man United have to be considered which makes eight teams in total to weigh up. That’s before you know how good a year clubs such as Palace or Brighton will have.
The 3/1 available about Newcastle to finish above Liverpool is where the value is.
This market doesn’t always offer us very much. Newcastle are only 5/1 to finish above Man City for example, and 4/1 against Arsenal.
Compare this with Newcastle being 4/7 to finish above Villa, 10/11 v Chelsea and 5/6 v Man United. Liverpool are not in Man City and Arsenal’s category, so you see why this 3/1 really stands out.