On Friday evening Old Trafford gets to open the curtain on the 2024/25 Premier League stage as Manchester United take on Fulham at 8pm.
The home side have been starting Premier League seasons expecting too much since 2013. That said, they’ve still been eking out the odd trophy and European qualification and there is some hope after the recent signings of Leny Yoro and Joshua Zirkee of a much-improved campaign.
Yoro won’t be available for Fulham, but there is enough quality, especial young and improving quality, in this squad to help the hosts get an opening-day result. Squeezing out value is the key and that’s what we’re exploring.
Recent Meetings and Opening Day Form
Head-to-heads aren’t a great way to predict future results but still, what sort of chemistry do these two have?
Their last five league games have produced results of 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 and 1-1. Man United only won one of those five and they have all been close affairs. More of the same would be no great surprise.
The Old Trafford outfit won 1-0 at home first time up a year ago against Wolves, while finishing 2-1 against Liverpool the year before. Fulham won 1-0 at Everton on their first away game of last term and lost 2-1 at Arsenal the previous season.
Based on all of this, we probably shouldn’t be expecting a mountain of goals although football’s most common result, 2-1, looks like it could be on the cards.
Bet Builder the Way to Go
One gets the feeling that Man United may be too strong this time around for Fulham. As usual however they are overvalued and underpriced, so a straight-up win bet isn’t the way to go.
A bet builder, or ‘same game multi’ is the call.
Using some of the evidence above, we shouldn’t be backing lots of goals, but we do need some insurance. Under 2.5 is risky, but under 3.5 looks as though it could be a safe play.
Man United don’t have a great recent record against Fulham, but their games have always been close and they are rightful favourites at home this time around.
Man United to win by any margin can be added in, meaning we are already starting to force a better price out of backing them.
Lastly, we can add a goalscorer but again, we’re looking for some insurance. You cannot guarantee when a particular player will find the net, much less be the first or last scorer on the night.
Joshua Zirkee to score at any time takes this bet to 11/2 and that looks like a reasonable shout. The home side will do most of the attacking on Friday night and Zirkee is now Manchester United’s most valuable commodity in forward areas.
There are no guarantees here, but 11/2 for backing Man United to win, for three goals or fewer to be scored and for their most likely top scorer to hit the target seems genuine value in the opening game.