The most important game of the Premier League season so far takes place on Sunday at the Etihad (16:30), as title contenders Manchester City and Arsenal go head-to-head.
This could be an extremely tight match as the Gunners continue to gain ground on Man City at the head of the pecking order in England. We’re looking at how best to grab some betting value from what should be an absorbing encounter.
Is Arsenal’s Great Away Record About to Shatter?
We’ve all handed out plenty of plaudits to Arsenal recently, deservedly so. They are extremely tough.
More to the point; they have now won 10 of their 11 away games in 2024, the other being a draw at Manchester City. That’s a hard record to beat.
Mikel Arteta’s men managed a morale-boosting away win at Tottenham in the North London Derby last week, even missing Odegaard and Rice. They are truly on a high and that’s been considered.
Spurs had more possession and territory in defeat, yet again, but didn’t convert. That’s bad news for them going forward, but it could also be bad news for Arsenal.
The point is, Arsenal didn’t let Spurs have the ball for long periods, they just took it anyway. And, when Spurs attacked and didn’t convert, it’s not as though Arsenal countered relentlessly and tore them apart. A set piece won it in the end.
Manchester City also like to keep hold of the ball and dominate possession, but they are far, far more likely to score than Tottenham. There’s little doubt about that.
How They Each Fair Against Similar Quality
If Man City do control territory and possession and indeed do convert, then think about it like this: what price would you give Man City with a goal start? We’re talking long odds-on here.
On that score, it would seem Arsenal are up against it on recent form. If that’s true, then they need to be brilliant going forward, especially on the counter.
With that in mind, how have they done in similar games against this level of opposition away from home since the beginning of last year:
Liverpool 1-1 Arsenal
Man City 0-0 Arsenal
Bayern Munich 1-0 Arsenal
That’s two draws and a defeat, and only two goals scored. In fairness, here’s Man City’s record against similar opposition in the same time period at home:
Man City 1-1 Liverpool
Man City 0-0 Arsenal
Man City 1-1 Real Madrid
Based on this, it looks very tight indeed.
We could see more of the same on Sunday. Then again, these patterns are there to be broken. Based on the above and relative squad values, the draw looks like value here. Man City or the draw would be the insurance.
Arsenal Best Combined XI, but City Have the Better Squad
As a neutral, it’s fair to say that in a combined XI only De Bruyne and Haaland are guaranteed a place above Arsenal’s players. Those two are, however, head and shoulders above their counterparts.
Top 10 Fantasy Points Scores This Season
| Manchester City (Points) | Arsenal (Points) |
|---|---|
| Haaland (54) | Saka (31) |
| Ederson (19) | Raya (29) |
| De Bruyne (18) | Gabriel (29) |
| Bernardo (16) | Havertz (24) |
| Lewis (15) | White (20) |
| Kovačić (14) | Saliba (19) |
| Gvardiol (12) | Thomas (18) |
| Akanji (11) | Timber (13) |
| Sávio (11) | Trossard (12) |
| Rúben (8) | Martinelli (10) |
Fantasy ratings via premierleague.com
Player ratings for Ederson, Walker, Akanji, Gvardiol and Lewis have all been unextraordinary, but what one has to consider is that Arsenal’s equivalent players, especially Raya, have had to work very hard. Man City’s defence has had an easier time.
Centrally and down then right is where Arsenal could be dangerous, especially with Saka. Through the middle though is the big deal with Haaland and De Bruyne untouchable.
Arsenal need to get ahead and stay ahead and stay ahead here right up to 30 minutes to go, as this is when Man City’s deeper squad can be utilised by Pep Guardiola to best effect.
Getting Value from the Game
Arsenal’s games against Man City’s level of players shows them to be good defensively. One goal in three such games however also shows that Havertz and co don’t scare teams like this and that’s what’s missing.
These are two solid teams, but this is very much a game based around the biggest individual players. Declan Rice will be back, and he offers an improvement from the team that played at Spurs but there’s not much more to call on.
Had Erling Haaland been on the sidelines that would be something for Arsenal, but he’s fit and finishing superbly which means big trouble. Kevin De Bruyne is the other main danger.
If Haaland gets his customary goal (or 2, or 3) then it’s game over. On the other hand, if too much attention is paid to him by the Arsenal defence, then gaps could be left.
With all of that in mind, this is the bet builder we’d recommend:
- Erling Haaland to score at any time
- Kevin de Bruyne over 0.5 shots
- Man City or draw
- Under 4 goals
- Most cards: Arsenal
This comes to around 6/1 and looks a fair shout for what may be a tight game.