The big TV game early on Saturday evening comes from Goodison Park where Everton host Newcastle United in a 5.30pm kick-off.
This is another massive clash at Goodison, and home fans should savour these games. They move to a new stadium next season and, who knows, might be in a league other than the Premier?
Recent Form
A recent away draw and a home win for Everton shows them in a better light than early in the season. In contrast, Newcastle have managed a disappointing away defeat and a home draw of late. That doesn’t tell the whole story, however.
Drawing with Leicester and beating a poor Crystal Palace side is a step in the right direction for Everton, but only that. Newcastle had recorded an away draw at Bournemouth and a win at Wolves before slipping up at Fulham, while their performance when drawing 1-1 with Man City at home last weekend was excellent.
The toon are much improved now. Anthony Gordon, replacing Alex Isak in the number nine position, was outstanding and scored from the spot against Pep Guardiola’s men. He should be back in from the start after missing most of the midweek cup win against Wimbledon.
Gordon is highly motivated for this clash against his former team. His pace may also be very dangerous against a side which has released some of the pressure on it and which is likely to be expansive enough to go out to win, leaving gaps for Gordon and co. He is the key man.
Everton at Home v Newcastle Away
So far this season in the Premier League, Everton have an aggregate score of 4-7 at home. Not a great result overall. That includes them being the only team in Premier League history to lose a game having led 2-0 in the 87th minute.
To date, they have played Brighton (now 9th), Bournemouth (11th) and Crystal Palace (18th) at Goodison.
Newcastle’s aggregate away score is also in the negative, though not as bad at 5-4 against. There was one particularly bad performance when they lost 3-1 at Fulham but were solid if unspectacular before that.
They have so far travelled to Bournemouth (11th), Wolves (20th) and Fulham (6th).
How Do Their Most Recent Games Compare?
Newcastle United showed themselves once again to be high quality when they played Manchester City last week. They have won since with a rather easy success against Wimbledon in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday.
Everton were spirited against Crystal Palace in turning around a 1-0 half-time deficit for an ultimate 2-1 win, but it was a very poor display defensively from Palace as acknowledged by their defender Marc Guehi.
Everton registered 8 shots last week to Palace’s 17 and had only 40% possession against them. If they do something similar against Newcastle, a different result should be pending against better opposition.
Head-to-Head
After a good run against Everton in recent years, Newcastle had a bad season last time around. The two sides drew 1-1 at St James’ Park in April, while Eddie Howe’s men were well beaten 3-0 at Goodison before that.
It’s clear that stuff rankles with Howe and his coaching team. We can be sure that he has this team finally primed to hit their peak in the Premier League, even if Isak doesn’t play. Goodison holds no fears for them during Howe’s time, only the quality is needed on the day.
The Bet
Given the known evidence, Newcastle to win this game is certainly the play. Firms across the board are going 11/10 and 9/4 at the time of writing.
To boost that, we can add a couple of legs into a bet builder.
We can’t rely on top man Alexander Isak playing on Saturday, but we can in fact use that. Anthony Gordon’s price to score perhaps doesn’t incorporate the fact that he is likely to play centrally as he did against Man City, with the Toon’s player of the month Harvey Barnes playing on the left to cover for him.
Gordon in fact is the focal point here. It would be no surprise if he scores. He has the clear motivation and is priced up as a winger, rather than as a striker. You may want to find odds on him being the most fouled player as well.
That brings us to another leg: most cards. Everton should be backed for this given the crowd, their situation and the Gordon factor which makes this a legit part of the multi-bet:
- Newcastle to win.
- Anthony Gordon to score any time.
- Most cards: Everton.
The bet builder comes to around 9/1 and offers some great value for a fascinating TV clash.