Aston Villa v Manchester City: More Pressure on Pep

Aston Villa Crest
Villa Park (Bad English, flickr)

Aston Villa face Man City in the early Premier League kick-off this Saturday at 12.30, and the stakes could barely be higher.

There is sure to be a red-hot atmosphere inside Villa Park for this one. The home side and their ruthless coach will surely be in no mood to grant any sort of footballing clemency to beleaguered visiting manager Pep Guardiola.

Should Man City claim a hugely important away win, they could get to within 6 points of Liverpool at the top, albeit temporarily and having played two games more. A win for Villa would see them leapfrog their opponents and move into the top five.

This is a mid-season match with major consequences attached. Should Villa draw or lose this game, their overall seasonal targets probably aren’t altered much. Another defeat for Guardiola and his team however starts to make things look extremely dire. Where would Man City go from there?

We’re looking into what these teams have achieved and make our betting prediction.

Form

As we mentioned, Villa could go above Man City on level games if they win this home match. With that in mind, you’d have to wonder why they are the outsiders for this match. We bet on real form, not on reputation.

Villa have 15 points from their eight home games so far. They’ve only suffered one league defeat at Villa Park and have a goal difference of +4 to this point.

Man City’s eight away matches have led to 11 points and a goal difference of only +1. They have lost as many games as they’ve won on the road (3), and at a glance this would show that Villa’s home form is better than Man City’s away record, albeit things are close.

Villa lost their last game at Nottingham Forest, but that was a close encounter against a good side. Before that they’d won three in a row, scoring 7 goals in the process.

Man City famously lost their 1-0 lead in the derby against Man United last week, losing 2-1 to take their recent shocking run to one win in 11 games. That’s a run which is sure to end at some point, but when? There are no signs to say they this is the old Man City again at all just now.

How Do They Each Perform Against the Best Teams?

The current overall league table isn’t the best guide just yet, but those with easily the best goal difference thus far are Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham. Throw in Nottingham Forest who are fourth in the league having beaten Villa last week and Newcastle who remain solid, and we have a fair group of six to judge these teams against.

Pos. Team W D L GF GA Points
5th Manchester City 8 3 5 28 23 27
7th Aston Villa 7 4 5 24 25 25

Away from home, Man City beat Chelsea 2-0 very early in the season when they were frankly a different side. They drew 1-1 at Newcastle and have lost against both Tottenham and Liverpool..

Villa’s season has gone the other way, starting a little slower before gaining momentum. They lost 2-0 at home to Arsenal and have not played any of the above-mentioned sides at Villa Park since. It could be a concern that they have lost fairly heavily to Liverpool and Chelsea as well as losing to Forest, but that’s all away from home.

Team News

There appear to be no major injury worries for Villa which is crucial at this stage of the season. Unai Emery can pick his best XI as he sees it this weekend and has that all-important home advantage to call on.

After recent events, how do you judge what Man City’s best team is? Even those who are fit are not at it for whatever reason so it’s impossible to predict what Pep will do and how much those he picks will produce.

Rodri is still out of course, but other than that there won’t be too many excuses in terms of personnel.

Our Verdict

Aston Villa v Manchester City Betting

Depending on how you read the form, this game runs anywhere from a close call to a relatively obvious home win. In no way does it scream away win which makes the odds look silly. That is, of course, unless the away side miraculously comes back to form.

Villa will be in no mood to five Man City a hard time. They will go for the jugular here and it’s hard to see this current Man City team having the character to cope with it.

Phil Foden and others have come out in support of their boss recently. The tagline has been to “trust the process”, Pep’s process, but it’s that which is letting them down.

Man City will no doubt remain patient, keep the ball and pass it around but they are not hurting teams the same way anymore. Furthermore, they tend to collapse at the merest hint of pressure right now. See Kyle Walker’s pathetic display last weekend.

Over the course of 90 minutes, not 38 games, Villa are not a long way behind Man City. They can go above them in the Premier League if they win and they are out-performing them in the Champions League too.

Based on the grounds of value, Aston Villa to win at anywhere between 11/5 and 23/10 looks massive. Man City are poor favourites and should be avoided.

Bet: Aston Villa to win over 90 minutes.