This game is a true top five clash, not just in terms of where these teams sit going into the weekend. Both sides are looking to secure Champions League football for next season and now they go head-to-head at high noon at St James’ Park on Sunday.
The Toon are 11/10 shots almost across the board at the time if writing, while Chelsea are between 2/1 and 9/4. There has been money for the visitors.
Joelinton is missing from Newcastle’s midfield, though Joe Willock can provide some legs in his place. For Chelsea, there’ll be no Wesley Fofana, Mudryk is of course banned, while Christopher Nkunku and David Fofana are also out. There may be a return for Marc Guiu.
Recent Form: A Stark Contrast
Chelsea play again on Thursday night in Europe. Though they can rotate, that may affect them somewhat.
Newcastle’s last five games at home have led to 5 wins, with 18 goals scored and 5 conceded. In Chelsea’s last five away they have managed one win, one draw and three defeats, scoring 4 and conceding 8.
That’s a stark difference. Put together over ten games, that would lead to 8 home wins versus one draw and a single away win. It’s also 26 home goals versus 9 away.
Newcastle had a hard enough shift last week drawing 1-1 at Brighton, enough to keep them fit and honest. Aside from being well beaten at Villa though, the ease with which they beat Leicester, Man United, Crystal Palace and Ipswich in recent weeks is notable. They scored 17 goals in that period, have cruised most of the time since winning the Carabao Cup and have plenty in the tank.
How Do These Teams Manage Against Champions League Contenders?
Taking Liverpool out of it, who’ve been different class, it’s interesting to see how these two teams have done against the other major contenders for the top five. Newcastle have played four such games at home and Chelsea three away.
The Blues have lost all three games against such contenders on the road, scoring twice and conceding 6 times. Newcastle have won 3 and drawn one of their four games, scoring 9 and conceding 4.
In a combined 7 matches, six have gone the way of the home side with 15 goals scored compared to 6 for the away team. On top of this, Newcastle have beaten Arsenal home and away in the League Cup as well as taking care of Chelsea in the same competition.
How Will This Clash Play Out?
Don’t expect all-out attack from Newcastle, not unless Chelsea invite it. Eddie Howe will be very aware of opening up too soon.
Chelsea’s best player is undoubtedly Cole Palmer. He does all his best work down the centre and can give Schar and Burn a tough time, as well as perhaps keeping Tonali pinned further back than ideal. Tonali is supremely fit however, with he and Bruno Guimaraes moving from back to front often in a blink.
In fact, Moises Caicedo, Enzo Fernandez and Nicolas Jackson are all top ranked at Chelsea and all play centrally. That could make for a compact middle of the pitch.
Alex Isak is the obvious dangerman for Newcastle. That central midfield battle is crucial, and it could be that Chelsea can stop him receiving the ball. The major difference in the sides really comes out wide.
While the home side are missing Lewis Hall, Tino Livramento has deputised brilliantly as an attacking left-back. On the other side, Kieran Trippier is playing some of the best football of his career while Jacob Murphy has been a revelation.
On the left, Harvey Barnes has done enough to keep Anthony Gordon out of the team which is some going. Either he comes back in, or he is once again one of the best substitute options in the league. Look out for Pope, Schar, Burn and Tonali moving the ball out wide as soon as they can.
The Bet
All runs come to an end, but Newcastle’s home form versus Chelsea’s away is chalk and cheese. This is exacerbated when considering how they each play against other top five contenders.
With this in mind, Newcastle to win and over 2.5 goals in the game at around 9/5 looks fair.