Well, we had a bit of a stinker last week.
Not aided by a paltry fixture list, we had to duck and dive to find any value whatsoever, and as it turns out we were unsuccessful in our mission!
Okay, so there wins as predicted for Exeter and Harrogate, but Sunderland, Northampton and T.N.S. – a Welsh outfit that rarely feature on these pages – all let the side down.
But it’s a return to normal this week with a full fixture list, and a back-to-basics approach should hopefully pay dividends for our football accumulator betting tips too.
| Match | Recommended Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford vs Wigan Athletic | Under 3.5 Goals | 4/9 |
| Blackburn Rovers vs Aston Villa | Blackburn/Draw Double Chance | 8/15 |
| Plymouth Argyle vs Blackpool | Blackpool/Draw Double Chance | 1/2 |
| Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United | Real Salt Lake -0.75 Asian Handicap | 12/25 |
| Colorado Rapids vs Atlanta United | Atlanta United to Win | 17/20 |
| Five-Fold Acca Odds | 8.06/1 | |
Brentford vs Wigan Athletic: Under 3.5 Goals
Looking at the results of Brentford and Wigan so far, you can understand why the bookies are so keen to have goals onside in this match.
The Over 3.5 Goal line has landed in 5/12 of their combined matches so far, and so clearly there is a hint that there will be plenty of end-to-end action here.
But that 3.5 mark is only breached in 31% of Championship matches in total, and it really does take some for a game to see four or more goals.
Brentford are an exciting side on home soil, but Wigan are typically more circumspect on the road; they average 4.00 shots on target for and 3.00 against away from home, compared to 6.33 and 4.00 respectively at the DW Stadium.
As such, we expect the Latics to try and shut the game down against the Bees on Saturday.
Blackburn Rovers vs Aston Villa: Blackburn/Draw Double Chance
For some reason, Steve Bruce continues to struggle getting the best out of a talented Aston Villa squad.
Jack Grealish, Anwar El-Ghazi, Albert Adomah, Yannick Bolasie, Tammy Abraham, Jonathan Kodjia, Conor Hourihane….there’s no reason why the Villains shouldn’t be mixing it with the best the Championship has to offer.
But this is a top-heavy squad, and Bruce – a former centre back of course – doesn’t seem to know how to set his teams up defensively. They are yet to keep a clean sheet this term.
As is often the way, Blackburn are being underrated by the bookies – that’s fine by us, and the performance data suggests their loss to Bristol City prior to the international break was their only poor effort so far this term.
Plymouth Argyle vs Blackpool: Blackpool/Draw Double Chance
The performance data confirms that the respective league positions of these sides is correct.
Plymouth are bottom of League One, and it really has been a struggle for the Pilgrims despite their excellent end to last season. They are yet to win in seven, and have scored just four times in that septet of outings.
Blackpool, despite off-the-field woes and their pitch resembling the beach just down the road, are going along quite nicely, with just one defeat all term. The shot data indicates they arguably deserve to b a touch higher than their ninth place in the table.
Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United: Real Salt Lake -0.75 Asian Handicap
With the finishing line just creeping into sight in the MLS, Real Salt Lake are making their dart for a play-off place.
They’ve won three on the spin, and their last two have been comprehensive hammerings of Colorado (0-6) and LA Galaxy (2-6). That is on top of a fantastic home record (W10 D3 L1), so the hosts can be confident of victory here once more.
No team in the MLS is worse on the road than Minnesota United, with 13 defeats from 15 outings, and that goals against column totals almost three per game on average.
Colorado Rapids vs Atlanta United: Atlanta to Win
There has been no side more eye-catching than Atlanta United in the MLS this term, and their attacking prowess should see them home against a toothless Colorado outfit.
They boast the record-breaking goals of Josef Martinez, backed by MVP candidate Miguel Almiron and the talented trio of Hector Villalba, Ezequiel Barco and Julian Gressel.
Even more appealing is that Atlanta have won 26 of their 54 points away from home; a rare anomaly in a league dominated by home advantage.
Colorado are without a goal in 270 minutes of football, and worst still they have shipped ten goals without reply in that period. They’ve won just five of fourteen on home soil this term, too.