The Carabao Cup Final is upon us again and this time, the atmosphere will be unforgettable.
Liverpool, now out of the Champions League but nailed on for the Premier League title, face the long-suffering Newcastle at Wembley at 4.30 on Sunday. We’re looking at the best possible betting opportunities.
Odds
Over 90 minutes, Liverpool are ranging from 4/7 to 4/6. The draw is 14/5 to 16/5 while Newcastle are available at 7/2 to 4/1. Liverpool are as short as 3/10 to lift the trophy outright, with Newcastle at 5/2.
Teams and Tactics
Liverpool had a rather bruising encounter on Tuesday against PSG, both mentally and physically. They went to extra-time and fell to a penalty shoot-out defeat 24 hours after Newcastle won at West Ham in the league. They also came away with a couple of injuries, Trent Alexander-Arnold now a doubt for the final.
Newcastle’s small squad has been further stretched recently. Key man Anthony Gordon is suspended, while Sven Botman is out again leaving Dan Burn to partner Fabian Schar. Lewis Hall is a crucial missing player after a fine season.
The benches are worth bearing in mind. Newcastle won’t want extra-time, with Miley and Willock capable of making a difference but there’s little else to call on. Despite that, there’s no guarantee of a fast start from the Toon as Howe will not want to be picked off by Salah and co on the break.
Mind Games
The psychological part of Sunday is key. Arne Slot was all smiles on TV before the game at St James’ Park in December, though finished the night fuming for some reason. Howe and Tindall will definitely play on that.
Then there’s the PSG result. The Newcastle management have been watching closely. PSG surprised Liverpool by instead of hitting them hard early, playing on the break and doing is successfully.
Given the passing ability of Bruno, Tonali and even Schar allied with the pace of Newcastle’s front three along with Isak’s finishing ability, they could emulate the French side.
Liverpool would be foolish to think Newcastle’s injuries will play on their minds. Barnes replaces Gordon and was a key reason for the win at West Ham. Livramento is very effective in replacing Hall as an attacking left-back, leaving the experience and ability of Trippier at right-back.
Potential Outcomes
We can’t back Liverpool at 1/3, though they are the most likely winners.
Joelinton has been close to a two-game ban for ten yellows. He was careful at West Ham but will leave nothing behind this time. Bruno and Tonali are operating well, while Isak has had a quiet patch by his standards but this is most definitely his stage.
Mo Salah just keeps doing it and is likely to have an influence again. Jota, Diaz and others are also all capable of goals.
Liverpool’s three top scorers (available) have 44 goals between them, though Salah has 27 of those. He’s the one to do the damage. Newcastle’s top three without Gordon have 29. Isak has 19, with Murphy and Barnes scoring 5 each. That puts Barnes only one behind Gordon from few appearances.
Motivation is high for both teams. Newcastle more than any other team though are desperate for a trophy. Jacob Murphy mentioned some weeks ago that the final of two years ago now feels like a rehearsal. They are ready and know what’s needed.
We can’t call this game confidently, given the odds. This is about goals, fouls and shots between two teams who usually go at it, producing high-scoring games.
The Bet
The following can be placed as a bet-builder:
- Mo Salah 2+ shots on target.
- Alexander Isak 2+ shots on target.
- Both teams to score (90 mins).
- Over 2.5 cards in the game (90 mins).
- Joelinton 2+ fouls.
Using Paddy Power as an example, this bet comes to 13/1 and is worth a shout.